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Free NFL Picks News & Notes: Thursday night marks the official start of the NFL preseason with five games on the slate including a possible Super Bowl preview when Baltimore takes on the Eagles in Philadelphia. It remains to be seen how much more time the starters may see in this first round of games given all the preparation time that was lost this offseason due to the prolonged player lockout.

None the less, this weekend will provide the first glance of all 32 teams in action which may provide at least some insight into how far along (or behind) each team is after the long layoff. You would have to expect to see a good deal of sloppy play during the first few weeks of the preseason, especially on offense where timing is such a crucial issue.

Undoubtedly, there will be some teams that will look like they are already in regular season form and there will be a few that will look like they wished that the lockout was still in place. Whatever the case, the four-week preseason will continue to drive the moneyline on each team’s projected win total either up or down. The initial win total is set by Las Vegas and has little variance from one major book to another.

Any fluctuations from this point on to the ‘win line’ and the vig (or cost) on the ‘over’ and the ‘under’ is driven purely by the money coming in on both sides. For example, WagerWeb.com’s win total for the Washington Redskins is currently at six and the current moneyline is -110 for the ‘over’ and -130 for the ‘under’. The betting public must have been hammering the ‘under’ as earlier in the week the line was 6.5 with a +150 moneyline on the ‘over’ and a -200 line on the ‘under.

If you enjoy wagering on win totals, now is the time to pay close attention to all of these line movements as there is value to be found all over the board. Some of the other interesting movements have the Falcons trending down a bit on their 10.5 win total with the moneyline on the ‘over’ currently at +105 and the line on the ‘under’ is -145.

Kevin Kolb must be looking sharp in his drills at Arizona’s training camp as the Cardinals are trending up on their 6.5 win total at -145 on the ‘over’ and +105 on the ‘under’. If you like the ‘over’ on this one, it may be time to act as it could jump to seven wins if he looks good in a couple of preseason games.

There seems to be some skepticism on Green Bay’s ability to win 12 games this season as the moneyline on the 11.5 win total is even money for the ‘over’, but -140 for the ‘under’. Peyton Manning’s neck is causing some serious concern about Indianapolis as the ‘over’ on 10 wins is at +110 but a play on the ‘under’ will cost you 150. Just as a note, the Colts have only failed to win at least 10 games once since 1999 and that was back in 2001.

The betting public appears to believe that Kansas City’s 10-win season in 2010 was a fluke as the ‘over’ on a modest win total of eight is +110, but the ‘under’ is -150. This could be the biggest value on the board with the Chiefs playing in the relatively weak AFC West and showing no visible signs of going in the opposite direction this year.

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2011 Atlanta Falcons Free NFL Picks Preview: Atlanta Falcons (13-3 SU, 11-5 ATS, 1st Place in NFC South)

Last season, the Atlanta Falcons were able to get into the postseason as the top seed in the playoffs. Though they squandered their chance by losing in their first playoff game, the Falcons definitely proclaimed that they are here for the foreseeable future.

It’s amazing to think that Atlanta ended up ranked No. 16 in offense and defense at 341.1 yards per game and 332.4 yards per game respectively. Of course, it was fifth in both points for (25.9 PPG) and points against (18.0 PPG). Head Coach Mike Smith has clearly done a fantastic job with this team.

QB Matt Ryan led a great offense last year, and he is clearly working his way up the ranks of the best quarterbacks in the league. He threw for 3,705 yards and 28 TDs against just nine picks. Of course, he had some major help in the form of WR Roddy White, who was once again one of the best in the league, and now, he also has a rookie with a ton of potential in WR Julio Jones.

RB Michael Turner rushed for 1,371 yards and 12 TDs a season ago, and he, RB Jerious Norwood, and RB Jason Snelling are all fantastic backs that have the ability to have big games, though both are still unsigned at this point.

The defense was really helped last year with the addition of DB Dunta Robinson, and as a result, there really weren’t a lot of changes in the offseason. The big loss was that of DE Jamaal Anderson, who was picked up by the Indianapolis Colts via free agency.

Playing well at home is the key once again. That playoff loss was as bad as it got for Atlanta at the Georgia Dome, as it dominated every other opponent in every other meaningful game there on the season. The lone loss in the regular season was a 17-14 defeat to the New Orleans Saints when the NFC South was already essentially wrapped up.

This year, the home slate is awfully tough, with visits from the Philadelphia Eagles, Green Bay Packers, and Minnesota Vikings in addition to the NFC South and two teams from the AFC South.

Don’t be surprised if Atlanta has yet another fantastic season behind its offense that is starting to resemble that of a video game. The only hiccup could be the defense.

2011 Atlanta Falcons Predictions: 12-4, 1st Place NFC South

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2011 Tennessee Titans NFL Picks Preview: Tennessee Titans (6-10 SU, 8-8 ATS, 4th Place in AFC South)

The Tennessee Titans had a ton of turnover this past year, but there is a real question about whether that turnover is going to be creating a winning nature once again this year.

The first change was right at the top. Head Coach Jeff Fisher, a man who was on the post since way back when this franchise was in Houston. Now, Mike Munchak, a man who has been a lifetime Oiler/Titan, takes over the team for his first head coaching job.

The next major change came at the quarterback spot. Last season, QB Kerry Collins and QB Vince Young started 15 of the 16 games. Neither one even completed 60 percent of his passes, nor neither reached the 2,000 yard passing mark. Young did have a 10/3 TD/INT ratio, but he just never really progressed as a true starting signal caller in this league.

That being said, owner Bud Adams elected to make some wholesale changes. Collins retired, and Young was granted his release.

The question is who was going to be replacing these quarterbacks. The team arguably reached quite a bit to take QB Jake Locker early in the first round of the NFL Draft. We know that Locker is a bit of a project pick, which is why QB Matt Hasselbeck was signed.

Presumably, Hasselbeck will be the starter in Week 1, but that doesn’t mean that he is going to be keeping the job the entire season, and it doesn’t mean that he is a savior. Last year, the Seattle Seahawks made it to the playoffs in spite of Hasselbeck, not because of him.

It’s also not good news that RB Chris Johnson is holding out right now after running for over 3,300 yards in the last two seasons combined. At this point, there are no outstanding wide receiver options after WR Randy Moss left the team and retired. WR Kenny Britt and WR Nate Washington just don’t scare us.

Just like the rest of this division, the Titans really struggled defensively. They ranked No. 26 overall at 367.7 yards per game, and they had the 29th ranked pass defense at 252.0 yards per game.

The schedule is rough this year for everyone in the AFC South, but at the outset of the season, three roadies and home games against the Baltimore Ravens, Denver Broncos, Houston Texans, and Indianapolis Colts is probably going to be just too much to overcome for a young team.

2011 Tennessee Titans Predictions: 6-10, 3rd Place AFC South

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